Personal Finance

Inflation: All You Need To Know

Inflation is the first thing that all of us should know on the subject of wealth management. It is very surprising that most educated and learned persons /investors still do not fully comprehend the term Inflation and it's impact on us. Ronald Reagan, the 40th US President, once said that "Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man". There are a lot of things that we can learn about Inflation and things related to it. In this piece, we attempt to present a simple FAQ on the subject.

What Is Inflation?
Inflation in simple terms means general price rise of goods & services. In economics, Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. In other words, the real purchasing power of currency reduces due to Inflation. As Sam Ewing once said "Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for a ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair".

How Is Inflation Measured?
Inflation is usually measured based on certain indices and broadly, there are two categories of indices for measuring Inflation i.e. Wholesale Prices and Consumer Prices. For measurement, an index number or a single fi gure is arrived at that shows how the related basket of goods & services has changed over time. Thus we have the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as the two major indicators of Inflation. The Inflation rate is the annualised percentage change in the index over time.

CPI (also retail Inflation) = Measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is the Inflation which is borne by us as individuals.

WPI (also headline Inflation) = Measures changes in the price level of a representative basket of wholesale goods which are traded by producers. It is the Inflation at the level of producers and has more meaning to industries & manufacturers. It is measured more quickly than CPI which takes more time to get reflected in the index. Different countries have different methods of measuring Inflation. In India, like many other developing countries, uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it's central measure of Inflation. Previously India used Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as the measure for Inflation but since year 2014, the new CPI (combined) is the new standard.

What Are The Reasons For Inflation?
There are several factors that affect Inflation in an economy and it is not easy to identify the exact relationship between different factors and it's impact on Inflation. For the sake of simplicity, we will broadly take a look at the primary factors for Inflation here...

Demand factors: It happens when the aggregate demand exceeds the aggregate supply. It is a situation where too much money chases few goods. Increased money supply due to loose monetary policy and low interest rates results in Inflation. Fiscal deficit financing by government by way of printing more money also results in Inflation.

Supply factors: It happens when the aggregate supply is not able to meet the aggregate demand. It is a cause of Inflation in an agrarian country like India where food is a major component of CPI. Further, because of rising wages & cost of capital also impacts the production cost of goods & services leading to rise in prices.

Domestic factors: In addition to demand & supply, the quantum of spending by government in the economy directly a ffects Inflation. Further, higher employment levels, taxation rates, etc. also add to Inflation. Issues like hoarding, blockages, etc. also positively impact Inflation.

External factors: There are external factors like currency exchange rates, trade barriers, etc. which a ffect the price of imported goods. Commodity prices in international markets like crude oil, gold, etc. also has impact on domestic Inflation.

How Does It Affect Us?
Inflation affects us directly and indirectly and has both positive and negative impact on us. While we may not list every type of impact, here are a few ways in which we may get affected as investors.

Purchasing power: Inflation hurts our buying power since we will have to pay more for same goods & services. Thus, with an Inflation of say 8%, your 1 lakh rupee today will be worth only R46,319/- in ten years time.

Cost of living: The cost of living is not equal to Inflation but is an aggregate impact of Inflation in our day-to-day lives. With Inflation, our general cost of living will increase and unless we are o set by rising income by the same rate, we will have increased expenditure and reduced savings. It will mean that one financial goal today will be worth lot more in future. For eg., when planning for retirement after say 25 years, your 50,000 worth of monthly expenses would rise to over 3.42 lakh rupees at an Inflation of 8%.

Wealth Creation: If your investments are not earning you more than Inflation then you are not actually growing or creating wealth. To create wealth you need to generate more of 'real returns' which we will talk later.

Interest rates: In case of sustained periods of high Inflation, the government is likely to keep interest rates higher meaning that loans will be at higher rates while rates of deposits will be also kept higher to absorb money. There will be less of government spending in general. In periods of low Inflation, interest rates will subsequently fall and this may also lead to a fall in interest rates offered by small savings /deposits making it a challenge in retirement planning.

Housing & stocks: In general, if you have already have investments in housing /stocks/equity mutual funds before Inflation, you will be in position to benefit from Inflation when prices rise. However, if not, you will find them expensive to buy later.

What Are Real Returns?
As investors, we should always look at returns not as notional returns but as real returns. Notional or stated returns is what you receive but real returns is what you are getting in real terms – after removing Inflation. For eg., if a bank account is giving you 8% pre-tax returns yearly – even with conservative retail (CPI) Inflation of say 7%, you are only getting 1% returns. If you consider post-tax (30% slab) returns of 5.6%, then your real returns are a negative of 1.4% meaning that you are loosing money by investing in such an avenue.

Next time whenever you are evaluating investment decisions, please remember real returns. Going a step further, it will be great if we calculate post-tax, real returns between investment avenues /products for our investment horizon.

How To Get Protection Against Inflation?
First, be aware of the Inflation figures and their impact in future costs. But merely knowing Inflation and real returns is not enough and we must also act to get protection against Inflation. Here are a few things that we should do in order to get protection...

Do Goal planning: Inflation is at the heart of financial planning. You must get to know your future financial needs to fulfill your life goals/dreams with the 'right' Inflation figure. The right Inflation rate is critical since CPI cannot be applied in general to all financial goals. For eg., Inflation for education and medical treatments is observed to be over 10%.

Save & invest aggressively: Merely planning is not enough and you also would need to aggressively save money and invest money. This means reducing expenses and controlling your budget.

Get Real Returns: Investments have to be made in asset classes /products giving you the maximum post-tax "real returns" as per your risk profile. The case is strongly in favour of equity asset class which has no long term capital gains (over 1 year) and where long term returns (at least 5 years) potential is the highest (average 12-15% expected) among all asset classes. This means that even at 12% nominal returns you are getting 5% of real returns vs. 1.4% of negative returns in fixed income instruments with 8% pre-tax returns.

Conclusion:
As Milton Friedman once said, "in¬flation is taxation without legislation". And there is no escaping it and no magic wand to keep it tamed and friendly for you. Infl¬ation impacts our financial lives more than anything else and we have to understand how infl¬ation would impact our future finances and financial goals. Understanding though is only the first step and protection is the next step where we must learn to interpret figures in terms of real returns and aim to maximum same. Unless we do not start doing that, we will keep eroding and loosing the our wealth without even knowing.

Money can buy Happiness

Life is a game; and money is how we keep the score”

There is a very popular ad by MasterCard, wherein a young man's parents visit him,

The cost of business class tickets is Rs 110,000,

He rents a luxury car, cost is Rs. 8,000,

He takes them to an amusement park, cost Rs 5,600.

And the old couple is on a ride laughing their heart out,the ad says “ watching your parents become children again, 'Priceless'. ”

If someone told you, “Money can't buy happiness”. He probably wasn't entirely speaking the truth. The ad clearly highlighted that the young man had spent Rs.123,600 as cost to have that priceless expression on his parent's face. The underlying universal truth today is simply this - there are only a very few things that money can't buy and for everything else, there is money!

One can easily imagine doing many small things that gives happiness but doesn't cost us like spending quality time with family, watching favorite TV shows, waking up late on Sundays, chilling out with favourite buddies, going for a mountain trek, sitting on a beach on a beautiful evening and so on... True these things do not cost us but can we imagine us doing all these activities in absence of any money? The truth is that we all would fail to see and appreciate life's small moments and wonders if we don't have any wealth. We can live a normal, peaceful life absent of any worries only if we feel that we have financial security and well-being. In absence of same, we will see ourselves toiling day and night to earn money to fulfill our basic needs and our life's primary goals.

We all want financial freedom in our lives to do the things we like most but yet, most of us often spend a life time running a rat race to reach there. And when we reach that state, if at all we do, we would have become old to do any of that.

So what's the answer?

There is no magic wand, but all we can say is that we need to commit ourselves with all our will to aggressively save and be strict in observing wealth creation and management principles which we have so often iterated.

We need to start with basic money management skill of controlling expenses – a very important need today. We need to realise that spending money will grant satisfaction, it may however not last forever but spending money wisely will grant satisfaction that may last a lifetime. What you do with your money, matters more than how much you have. If you spend on things that give you satisfaction, it is really worth it. But if you spend on things that give you immediate pleasure but lose its lustre after some time, will not give you happiness. The idea is not to compromise on your needs or desires or to not follow your passion. It is about managing your expenses intelligently, so that you have a surplus which you can invest for your future.

It is wise to buy experiences and not articles.

You like cycling, plus its good for your health. Now there are three cycles to choose from, A,B and C, costing Rs 5,000, Rs 25,000 and Rs 100,000 respectively. Cycle A may not be very comfortable, so you might want to choose between B and C. A smart investor would always choose B because; Cycle B would maintain it's quality and comfort, it would have all features which are required for a comfortable cycling experience. It might not however be a big brand as C, it might have 2 lesser gears than C, Cycle C would be made of carbon, so you can lift the cycle with one finger. But does this really matter? Will it at all impact his cycling? No. So, he would rather buy Cycle B, save Rs. 75,000 and invest the money for his future. And there are hundreds of instances, where we have to make a choice between similar products but with different prices, or between buying or not buying at all. It depends on how wise we are and how effectively we follow money management techniques in each purchase; it will be a significant sum at the end of the year.

This first step is most critical as it will enable you to save money which can then be invested in avenues which help grow your wealth. Remember a rupee saved is a rupee earned. For some even such small savings can give happiness when they believe in their hearts that these savings will bring many smiles in future …

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For the first time investor

Prerna has been working for 5 years now. The reason behind her slender investments is saving some tax, and some, she is generous enough to give away to the government for the economic development of the country. As far as her economics are concerned, she believes travelling and shopping in the mall till her last breath, are the only possible avenues where her hard earned money should go.

Prerna's investment summary:
2011 – Company EPF – Rs. 16,000 (She wasn't falling under a tax slab)
2012 – Company EPF – Rs. 24,000 (She joined the 10% league and paid some tax after the EPF)
2013 – Rs. 25,000 Bank FD in XYZ bank; Company EPF Rs. 24,000 (She paid Rs 9,000 in taxes)
2014 – Rs. 40,000 Bank FD in XYZ bank; Company EPF Rs. 24,000(She still paid Rs 16,000 in taxes)
2015 – Company EPF Rs. 24,000 (Since she got married, she had nothing left to invest; She paid Rs. 37,000 in taxes, as she entered the 20% slab this year)

Prerna could have saved her entire tax liability over these five years by investing smartly. Prerna after 5 years of employment has negligible bank balance, Bank FD's totaling Rs. 65,000 and EPF which she can't withdraw. She has entered into a new phase of life and is witnessing responsibilities falling one after the other on her head. She has realized that it is high time, she must get her act together and do something about her savings and investment. In fact, she has been thinking about this since 2013, but never took the pains to plan her finances. Prerna must follow these basic steps to step out of her dilemma:

  • Educate yourself: The first step to investing is learning. There are various websites and journals, which host a powerhouse of information. Subject books on finance and government websites can also be referred. Prerna should familiarize herself with the basics of importance of saving, various investment options available and pros and cons of each. The advantage of acquiring knowledge is she won't be totally boggled when she takes the first step, there would be lesser chances of her falling into the trap of frauds, and her homework will be done when she seeks professional advice.
  • Find your style: Though there are idol investment portfolios on the basis of age, income, family demographics, etc., but every individual has a different approach to life. Some may have the adventurous spirit and the aptitude to take risk, while others may be conservative and don't want to risk their money at all. So, Prerna should analyse her style, whether she wants to experience the thrill of equities or want to first build a safe harbour and then start exploring other options.
  • Ice Breaker: Prerna has to shake herself up, since she is too comfortable with not bothering much for her future. She has been wondering that she wants to invest but kept on postponing. Procrastinating investments is delaying her financial security, all she needs is a "Start" button, she needs to lay the first stone in her investment plan.
  • Start early: If Prerna would have started saving in 2011, she would have saved Rs 62,000 of taxes, that she paid, she would have saved at least Rs 3 – 4 Lac by now for saving these Rs 62,000, and if she directed small portions in monthly SIP's or RD's, she would have saved another Rs 1 – 2 Lac. She would have had a strong financial cushion for her now. However, better late than never, she should immediately start investing and make up for what she never did.
  • Don't pay tax when you can save them: Prerna's taxes are equivalent to her total savings. The government has given us the benefit to not pay tax by saving for us. It has two benefits; one, we can save money by not paying tax and two, we are saving for our future in order to not pay tax. Rs. 150,000 can totally be saved under Section 80 C by investing the same amount and there are other sections as well, which can be used if applicable.
  • Advice: Since Prerna is an amateur, she can make mistakes. She tends to get carried away, she may start doing, what her smarter friends are doing. She may start following what the anchor of the business news channel is saying without any research. Since she lacks exposure, she must seek professional advice. She may look up to an experienced family member, who is into savings and investments, or she may seek help from a professional financial advisor.

The advisor will help Prerna choose the right fit according to her profile and requirements. And all she needs is dedication, a control over her emotions and keep her basic necessities and investment commitments at the top. Let's bring a smile on Prerna's cute face by assuring her that she can continue shopping and traveling after providing for the above.

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Investment Guidelines for Young Adults

Young adults are perhaps the richest amongst all of us. They have something more than all of us - "time", they are at an age when the possibilities are unlimited. In case you are a young adult in 30s or a parent / guardian with children approaching or are in their 20s, this article is for you. The article tells us few things which perhaps we were never told when we were young. We bring to you six valuable investment guidelines that can literally make a huge impact in lives of young adults.

1. Learn about Personal Finance & Investing :
Knowledge about personal Finance topics and investing at an early age is a great asset. Young adults must know about different asset classes, investment products, insurance, loans & credit, time value of money, inflation, savings, taxation, ¬financial planning, etc. Such knowledge, especially during early years of your career can really help you take great decisions for future. If you are a guardian, be sure to involve the young adults in your own investment decisions. There are many ways in which young adults can gain financial knowledge. Some of the ways are reading good investment books, reading ¬finance magazines, interacting with financial advisors, accountants, successful investors in family/friends, and so on.

2. Control Your Spendings :
Young adults are perhaps the most valued consumers hunted by every big brand ranging from cars to shoes to laptops to even holiday packages. With the newly gained earning power and lack of big responsibilities, it is natural that spendings on entertainment, gadgets, accessories, hanging out / parties, etc. form a big chunk of the spendings. Surely it is the time to enjoy life but young adults are advised to control their urge to spurge and not make impulsive decisions. It would be great if one can budget such spendings and avoid taking big decisions like buying motorbikes, cars, laptops, etc. without adequate thinking and research.

3. Start Investing Immediately
We have often spoken on this topic. The benefits of saving early can never be under estimated. Even if the savings is small, due to the power of compounding, the wealth created by you can be enormous. This may easily surpass the wealth created even with increased savings but started after a few years. You may be surprised how much difference will be there in the end value just by starting early.

4. Get PAN & Start Filing Tax Returns:
Filling of ITR has many advantages as they are considered standard income proofs globally and they help you while applying for loans, visa applications for jobs abroad, requesting tax refunds, etc. The PAN issued by IT authority is a prerequisite for filling ITR and is also mandatory for many financial ¬transactions. There is a perception that if the taxes are paid, there is no need to file ITR. This is a misconception and it is essential to know that it is our obligation to file the ITR when you are required to do so. Further, still many believe that their incomes are too small to attract the attention of IT authorities and get tax scrutiny and hence may indulge in non filing of returns or understating income. You may note that IT authorities uses a system whereby cases are picked up randomly on certain criteria. You may never like to be the one to get short-listed and invite unnecessary hassles. Remember that you are permitted to save taxes, but not evade taxes.

5. Get Health & Life Cover:
Getting adequate protection at a young age, where people tend to be more adventurous, is highly advised, even if there aren't any dependents on you. Buying health or life cover at a younger age is also considerably cheaper than buying the same after few years. Such protection can really help one in case there is any unforeseen emergency and financial burden on parents will be avoided.

6. Start Thinking About Home:
The average age of home & car buyers has decreased drastically in the last 20 years. Powered by easy availability of loans, fat pay packages & growing aspirations, the first time home buyer today is often around the age of 30. The first time car buyers are even younger. It would thus be best advised that young adults keep these goals in mind and start saving as much as possible for home & car goals, if any, from now onwards. It would really benefit you a lot when the time comes for purchase in near future. Often young adults delay saving for the goal and end up paying lesser down-payments and taking higher amount of loans which should be avoided. Lastly, even if you have a home of your own, it is advisable to think of buying a home as an investment for future and also enjoy tax benefits on same. Having time on your side is a great advantage and never to be missed. Few young adults may choose to ignore & not act on 6 guidelines shared above at their own peril. Experience has shown that wise decisions, actions and discipline in these formative years go a long way in securing a better ¬financial future down the line. Simple actions taken today can help you avoid taking tough decisions at times when you have family to support and lot of responsibilities on your hands. So go ahead and make the best that this time has be offer, smartly.

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Manage Your Asset Allocation

As an investor, one should have the basic understanding of asset allocation, irrespective of how literate or experienced you may be. It is at the heart of portfolio management for investors and as studies have indicated, it is also the primary determinant of portfolio returns over time. In this article, we take a closer look at this key element that we all must adopt, manage & track in our overall investment portfolio.

Why Asset Allocation?
As a definition, asset allocation means an investment strategy that aims to balance risk and reward by distributing a portfolio's assets according to individual needs & profile. There are three main asset classes - equities, ¬fixed-income and cash & equivalents.

A clear justification for asset allocation is the logic that different asset classes having different characteristics will offer returns that are less correlated to each other. Thus, essentially with asset allocation we are 'diversifying' and reducing the overall risks of the portfolio as one asset class may outperform the other and thereby reducing the volatility of returns for a given level of returns expectation. Asset allocation is based on the principle that different assets perform differently in different market and economic conditions.

Many ¬financial experts also argue that asset allocation is the most important factor in determining returns for an investment portfolio. Various studies done by expert point to the fact that asset allocation could explain over 90% of the returns from a portfolio in long term as opposed to superior product selection or market timing.

Determining Your Asset Allocation :
While there may be guiding lights, there is no standard rule or ratio of asset allocation which can easily ¬t everyone. Determining the asset allocation is a personal decision much like tailoring your own suit. There are many factors that play an important role in determining asset allocation but the following are the most important ones...

Investor Risk Profile:
Your risk profile or tolerance level is your ability and willingness to absorb large fluctuations in the value of your investments. It is kind of an indicator that measures your comfort, patience and con¬confidence to not panic and sell at the wrong time while continuing to be ¬financially sound. There are a lot of things that impact your profile, including awareness, understanding of markets, your ¬financial soundness, earnings capacity and lastly the ability to keep your emotions under control.

Investment Horizon:
The investment horizon is an important determinant of asset allocation as different asset classes have different ideal investment horizons. They may be expected to behave in a certain manner with reasonable confidence based on their own characteristics & market cycles. For e.g., the equity asset class, being volatile in short term should only be looked at if investment horizons extend long enough in the future.

Investment Goals/Targets:
Another determinant of asset allocation is the returns expectation or requirement you may have from your investment in order to achieve a financial/life goal or target. You may be end up up deciding an asset allocation solely from the point of view of achieving that goal. For e.g., a person in late 40s may suddenly realize that he needs to save for retirement in just 12 years. Now, the only way to maximize the retirement kitty would be to invest in equities which have the highest returns potential, irrespective of his risk profile but keeping in mind the horizon which is long enough for equity returns to be more realistic.

The Asset Classes : Asset classes can be seen as buckets of investment products /avenues which display similar risk-return characteristics. There is three basic 'traditional' asset classes as already highlighted earlier which you may look at for investing – depending your need & profile. For private circulation only

  1. Equities:

    This includes direct equity stocks, equity mutual fund schemes, equity PMS and ETFs. Some experts also include private equity and business investments in this asset class. Equities are risky but also hold promise for higher returns. One may reduce the risk of direct equities by investing in equity mutual fund schemes which have diversified portfolios of stocks managed by experts.

    • Within equities, asset allocation may be done on basis of the size of the company or it's market capitalization. Thus one can diversify into large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap stocks or funds. There are also diversified and blend (two or more market caps) funds available for investors to choose from.
    • One may even have diversification based on country with funds investing in domestic markets and in foreign markets. But with India, being the fastest growing economy globally, there is little sense to look for opportunities elsewhere.
  2. Fixed Income:

    This asset class gives more assured form of returns that accrue in form of interest income and due to fluctuations in bond prices triggered by interest rate cycles. It covers instruments like time deposits, government small savings schemes, bonds, corporate deposits, government papers, etc. While it may not be easy for everyone to participate in bond markets in India just like they do in equity markets, mutual funds do present us with a very easy and familiar route to invest in such products.

    • Your total asset allocation should include the debt portion of your traditional investments into bank time deposits, PPF, EPF, small saving schemes, etc. along with investments into mutual fund debt schemes.
    • Mutual fund debt schemes offer lot of options with a wide range of fund types that offer different sets of risk-return horizon within debt asset class. One can do a deeper level asset allocation of debt into these broad category of funds. This will be meaningful only if you have debt, especially mutual fund debt schemes, as a significant part of your portfolio.
  3. Cash & Equivalents:

    This asset class is the least riskiest but also one that gives the least /no returns. It broadly includes Cash and equivalents like deposit account with banks and money market mutual fund schemes. Some amount of investments should be made into this asset class to have liquidity for emergency purposes and for meeting maturing goals.

    • Alternative Asset Classes: Apart from the above three primary asset classes, many ¬financial planning experts also consider few other asset classes depending on the investors they advice.
    • Commodities: A popular avenue for Indians, this includes precious metals (like gold, silver), agriculture, energy, etc.
    • Real Estate: Again an important 'investment' avenue for us, it includes commercial or residential real estate and REITs or Real Estate Investment Trusts.
    • Collectibles: A slow emerging category for wealthy Indians, collectibles includes things like art, paintings, coins, stamps, wine, etc.
    • Others: Foreign currency, derivatives, etc. also can be considered as asset classes but which are not recommended or suitable for individual investors.

Managing Your Asset Allocation :

  1. Do It Your-self

    If you had been investing and trying to manage your funds yourself, and want to keep it that way, you will need to take care of the following:

    • Maintain consolidated records for all investment classes. And remember not to skip anything as most of us ignore our traditional /realty investments and only consider stocks & mutual funds for asset allocation which gives us a very misleading picture.
    • Find the right asset allocation suitable for you and/or decide asset allocation for each of your -financial goals. This is not easy even though there many risk pro¬ling tools available on-line. Execute the asset allocation and regularly review the same over time. Again this may require a lot of your involvement and time commitment.
  2. Do It Through Your Advisor

    Investing through your ¬financial advisor /planner or wealth manager seems to be a very logical and the right thing to do. Your ¬financial advisor who ideally would be experienced in assessing risk profile and determining asset allocation would easily guide you to knowing your ideal and existing asset allocation. He/she would also be in a position to monitor and recommend changes in your portfolio on a regular basis. Your ¬financial advisor also has access to more refined product like MARS which manage your asset allocation through an automated process making things much more easier for you.

    The value which a - financial advisor may add in terms of managing your asset allocation is immense. Here are a few things that he/she can offer..

    • Access to a much wider range of asset classes and product choices.
    • Timely /regular portfolio reporting & tracking services for all your assets.
    • Regular review and re-balancing of asset allocation.
    • Discipline & commitment to follow asset allocation for achieving life goals

    We believe, based on our experience, it is very difficult for individual investors to follow asset allocation with discipline without ¬financial advisors. With a good advisor on your side, your portfolio should too potentially outperform a portfolio which does not follow the asset allocation approach to managing investments.

Conclusion :
There is no doubt that asset allocation brings discipline and gives the answer to the big question – when to buy & sell at an asset class level. Following an asset allocation approach to managing investments can yield great results over time. Taking the active help of your ¬financial advisor in managing the asset allocation is the way to go forward.

Imp.Note: We are registered NJ Wealth Partners and this interview published is sourced from NJ Wealth with due permissions. Reproduction of this interview/article/content in any form or medium by any means without prior written permissions of NJ India Invest Pvt. Ltd. is strictly prohibited.

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